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Britain has been the staging ground for four poisonings in as many months: First former spy turn double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter, Julia, who we’ve heard nothing from since the park bench attack just miles from one of the largest stockpiles of chemical weapons in the world, because they are allegedly being held in a location so secure no one is allowed to talk to them.

And now a couple poisoned at an Amesbury housing development, Dawn Sturgess, 44 – who died earlier this week – and her partner Charlie Rowley, 45, who reportedly remains in a critical condition.

That it has produced zero evidence for Russian culpability hasn’t stopped Downing Street from forming its own conclusions.

Prime Minister Theresa May described the attacks as “brazen and despicable”. MI5 condemned the attack as “flagrant breaches of international rules”. Home secretary, Sajid Javid said it was time “the Russian state comes forward and explains exactly what has gone on”. Security minister, Ben Wallace similarly concluded that Russian state scientists “had developed Novichok, they had explored assassination programmes in the past,” and that the Russian government “had motive, form and stated policy”. He claimed there was “a very high assurance” Russia was responsible and said he felt anger at the Russian state. “They chose to use a very, very toxic, highly dangerous weapon,” he said. They should “come and tell us what happened”.

Sturgess death has given Downing Street all the ammunition they need to launch murder charges against an as yet unknown suspect, along with espionage, conspiracy and a host of other accusations that as yet remain unproven.

Moscow has emphatically denied any involvement. A press officer for the Russian embassy responded to the Home Secretary that allegations of Russia’s involvement “are merely speculative and are not based on objective data of the investigation”.

“As for the cooperation and information sharing, Russia has from the very outset proposed a joint investigation of the attempted murder of two Russian nationals,” a statement on the embassy website reads.

“The proposal remains on the table. Unfortunately, the British investigation remains totally non-transparent. Our numerous questions on this matter remain unanswered. The UK authorities avoid any contact with the Russian side on this, or any other issues of concern. Moreover, London continues to blatantly violate its international obligations by refusing consular access to the Russian citizens, who remain isolated and are highly likely under duress by secret service.”

The Russian government claims it has not been contacted either over the Skripal or Amesbury incident.

“We cannot judge if the sample analysis was correct, or if any parallels with the Salisbury poisoning are well founded. It is regrettable that UK officials try to link a second poisoning with Russia without having produced any credible results of the investigation of the first one. Instead of genuine cooperation London is doing everything possible to muddy the waters, to confuse and frighten its own citizens. One can only guess what the reasons behind such a line of behaviour are.”

Novichok: rapid and deadly… except when it isn’t

There are significant inconsistencies around these poisoning narratives, regarding the nature of the toxin supposedly used in the attacks, and the motive of those responsible.

First we were told in the wake of the Salisbury poisonings that novichok is apparently a highly toxic and deadly chemical agent multitudes more powerful than Sarin or VX poisons and caused death in seconds. But that claim was corrected by scientists who explained that actually, the poison was slow acting, absorbed through the skin and wasn’t particularly deadly. This seems to be confirmed by the fact that three out of the four people poisoned in as many months survived.

Porton Down scientists months ago went on record in the wake of the Salisbury incident that they were pressured by the government to identify the toxin as being both novichok and Russian in origin when no such conclusions could be drawn.

That and Britain’s own Chief Medical Officer, Professor Sally Davies revealed during the Skripal attack that members of the public concerned they had come into contact with the toxic poison could rid any traces from their mobile devices and clothes with your standard supermarket baby wipes and an ordinary machine wash. 

There have been efforts to connect the poison used in the Amesbury attacks to the Skripal poisonings. But in the wake of the Skripal poisonings, Professor Robert Stockman from the University of Nottingham told the Daily Mail that traces of nerve agent do not linger, which would imply that the Amesbury incident would have to be a new poisoning attack.

“These agents react with water to degrade, including moisture in the air, and so in the UK they would have a very limited lifetime,” he told the Mail. “This is presumably why the street in Salisbury was being hosed down as a precaution – it would effectively destroy the agent.”

The embassy of The Russian Federation in the Netherlands says the UK government deliberately changed the language in its draft decision on the Skripal poisonings, claiming the substance had been identified as “novichok”, insinuating it was of Russian origin, when the original OPCW Report merely indicates the presence of a toxic chemical.

As for the claims that novichok is an agent that can and has only been synthesised by Russia, that claim is plainly false.

We still don’t even know if novichok is specifically the toxic agent used in the Skripal and Amesbury poisonings, but we know Porton Down – a chemical warfare research laboratory located just miles from the sites of both poisonings – is capable of synthesizing novichok and similar nerve agents in its laboratories. We also know it has a long and sordid history of using unsuspecting human subjects as guinea pigs – up to 3,400 people between 1945-1989Israel and the US have also manufactured the chemical agent. It’s not as though its chemical make-up is a secret. Former Russian chemist turn whistleblower, Vil Mizayanov even published the chemical formula for the nerve agent for an English speaking audience in his book, State Secrets. According to former British Ambassador turn whistleblower, Charles Murray, German spy agency BND obtained novichok in the 1990s, and it was studied and synthesised in several NATO countries, “almost certainly including the UK and USA”.

The victims

Both The Guardian, Sky News and the BBC described victims Charlie Rowley and Dawn Sturgess as homeless and unemployed, but Rowley reportedly recently bought a new house in Muggleton Road, on a new estate, still under construction, whose value is estimated to be anywhere from £270,000 – £430,000. According to Sky News, Sturgess was staying at a local homeless hostel – John Baker House – at the time of the poisoning.

Rowley is reportedly a convicted heroin dealer and user, so that might or might not explain both how he managed to afford the new digs, or how he might have come to be in the possession of the chemical agent (whether knowingly, or unknowingly). It also may or may not explain how Sturgess – a known drug user – did not survive. 

Then there is the matter of a strange comment made by Rowley’s brother Matthew to the BBC.

“I’m not quite sure how he managed to get involved with ‘that lot'”, he said. As to ‘which lot’ he was referring to, it was never made clear because the reporter never followed up on the question. 

It could have been a throw-away comment made in a moment of grief and anxiety. It could have referred to Sergei and Julia Skripal. It could have been in reference to scientists at Porton Down. We’ll never know because nobody bothered to ask. 

Conclusions without evidence

Despite its insistence that only Russia can be responsible, the government has produced zero evidence to support its claims. There has been countless speculation, even from those skeptical of the motives of May & Co, but at this stage we believe it is inappropriate to form any kind of conclusions seeing as how the only evidence we have are four victims that were poisoned by some kind of toxic chemical, three of whom survived.

Four months on and 60 expelled diplomats later, the UK government has still produced no evidence even over the real nature of the toxic substance used, and no evidence to back its claims of Russian involvement.

To be sure, there are some weird, high-level, Cold-War games at play. But for the life of us, we couldn’t tell you what they are, and anyone claiming otherwise has a bridge to sell you.

The fact is, all we know about these poisoning incidents are the unknowns.

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